Former Philadelphia Inquirer editorial writer Doug Pike announced his candidacy for Congress Wednesday, pursuing a seat that Republican Rep. Jim Gerlach has held since the district was drawn in 2002.
Pike, a 14-year veteran of the newspaper's editorial board, is the first Democrat out of the gate in the 6th District, which has been competitive in each of the four races Gerlach has won.
The son of Otis Pike, a former nine-term congressman from New York, Doug Pike came out swinging.
''I'm not a career politician. I won't play political games,'' he said in a statement. ''I'm running for Congress to bring a renewed focus on the needs of everyday citizens and to replace a partisan career politician who has failed the people time and again.''
Gerlach is a clueless haircut and needs to go. But it won't be easy. The RNCC will protect that district with their lives!
He's successfully held off a few challenges recently, and while they certainly don't see the district as safe, it's tougher for Democrats to recruit good candidates. Personally I've never heard of Doug Pike...
I think that given the incredible uncertainty over the state of the economy, which I think will persist, the next election cycle is going to be fascinating. Will anti-incumbency rule or will Dems be hurt by the possible failure of the Obama administration to squelch the continued unravelling? Bottom line? Who is the electorate going to blame?
With that said, I think that even unknowns could have a chance. Or not :-)
Gerlach has faced decent competition, but nothing really strong. It will take a bright, powerful new face...and a lot of money to kick him to the curb. But it can be done.
I always thought of Lois Murphy as a *very* strong competitor who happened to lose slightly each time.
The 6th will always be tempting to Dems because it's such a close partisan divide and the last few cycles have been 51-49 nail biters. The problem for Dems, though, is that Reading, which would be a stronghold for them, has been gerrymandered to ditlute its strength being divided among 3 different congressional districts. (If Reading were totally contained in the 6th, Dems would have this seat.) Even though Gerlach votes party line probably 99% of the time, he still seems to have a lot of good will leftover from his state senator days when he was more bi-partisan. He's like Specter in this regard - perceived as more moderate and bi-partisan than he is.
As for Doug Pike, if you have Lexis Nexus, go back and read his signed op-eds. To me, he always sounded like a conservative. IMO, if Pike would win this seat, the first thing he'd do is join the Dem "Blue Dog" caucus. Frankly, we don't need any more of them. Might as well keep Gerlach.
Gerlach has hinted that he may enter the race for governor while Lois Murphy is now apparently going to offer herself to Montgomery as a candidate for County judge.
Republicans have little fear of losing the 6th as it was so heavily gerrymanded for a GOP candidate that they should be able to elect anyone who has managed to stay out of jail.
Yet Gerlach himself proved to be such a terrible candidate that he nearly lost that well-tailored seat to Murphy...who herself was no great campaigner.
Maybe he will go for governor and hopefully, on into political oblivion.
Matt Thomas
The district may have been drawn for a Republican back in 2001, but the demographics of the 6th have shifted significantly since then. Kerry took this district in '04, as well as Obama last year. If Gerlach retires to make a gubernatorial run, a Dem pick-up (no matter who they run) is at least even money, if not a moderately good bet. If Gerlach remains in the House, he should be favored again next year, given his ability to run ahead of his party in a difficult and changing district. If Gerlach hangs it up, however, who might be the GOP heir apparent? I suppose much hinges on the redistricting after 2010. If Dems keep the state House, the 6th will most certainly be tweaked in a more Democrat direction (probably to include the entire city of Reading, as pd mentioned). I'm sure prospective candidates on each side are conscious of the probability that the 6th won't look like it does today in a few years.
To the Gentleman...
I cannot agree with all you say and do not wish to extend this into a pissing contest during which you may eventually peter-out as before.
Nevertheless, I am forced to admit that this time, the gentleman's analysis is at least thoughtful and refreshing.
One Caveat: There would need to be considerable Democratic muscle in the General Assembly with no meaningful negotiations with the Republicans for any agreement that would move the entire City of Reading back into the 6th.
You are on target here: The inclusion of Reading would spell near-certain disaster for the GOP...but...but...assuming that the Dems are able to further build their registration from the city's huge Hispanic demographic and most important, to get the members of this same community out to vote at the polls...a scenario that still remains far from a sure thing given the local organization's miserable lack of success in the past.
Matt Thomas
Matt -
How exactly does one "peter out" during a pissing contest? I'm afraid of what your answer might be on that one, my friend.
Pardon the humor...just couldn't pass it one up.
Don't hold me to this, because trying to predict political outcomes two years from now is like trying to specify the date of Armageddon, or trying to predict when (or if) the Pirates will enjoy a winning season again. However, for the sake of argument, let's say the Dems keep the state House and the GOP holds the state Senate next cycle. Pennsylvania is virtually guaranteed to lose at least one congressional district after the census in 2010. This almost certainly will be a seat in western Pennsylvania.
My bet is that the GOP cedes some territory to the Dems in the 6th district, perhaps even allowing the entire city of Reading to be redrawn into the district, thus transforming it into a decently "blue" seat. My hunch is that the 3rd congressional district may be on the chopping block during the next redistricting process, which the GOP will probably go along with, especially if Kathy Dahlkemper holds the seat for the Dems next cycle. The 3rd would be probably be fed into the existing 4th and 5th districts, making those seats a bit more red. The 12th district (Murtha-land) isn't going anywhere and the 14th and 18th districts probably won't change all that much after 2010.
In my humble opinion, as of now, it'll probably end up as a wash politically (Dems get the 6th but lose the 3rd, with the GOP's chances of re-taking the 4th improved) after the next redistricting process. However, ask me again in a year, and I'll probably give you a different answer.
Gentleman...
A worthy analysis but like you said, based on a host of assumptions several of which may go awry.
Too often, the only precedent in politics is that there is no precedent.
The City of Reading has an interesting political history that, indeed, shattered all past precedent when its voters elected a Socialist government in the late 1920s and again in the 30s and 40s.
In fact, the Socialist city administration led by the then Mayor, Henry J. Stump, was supported even by more than a few Republicans who actually voted the Socialist ticket. At one point in the 1930s these home-grown Socialists captured the Mayor's office, the entire City Council and all the municipal judgeships (aldermen).
Oldsters in Reading (now very old) still maintain that the Socialists gave the city the best government it ever had.
They remained in power until January, 1949.
Wonder what Limbaugh would make of this history?
Matt Thomas