More than a year before the first primary ballot will be cast, Sen. Arlen Specter is running television ads depicting a likely Republican opponent, Pat Toomey, as a Wall Street insider bent on consigning Social Security to the whims of the stock market.Christopher Nicholas, Mr. Specter's campaign manager, said the sharply negative ad is airing on cable television across the state, with a total buy of roughly $100,000.
Mr. Toomey, a former congressman, protested that the ad is factually inaccurate, adding, "This is a desperate and silly attempt by Sen. Specter to change the subject away from his support for Wall Street bailouts and massive new spending and debt in Washington."
The early assault on Mr. Toomey comes after a tumultuous legislative span for the veteran Republican. Mr. Specter stirred long-festering conservative resentment when he was one of only three Republicans who voted for the Obama administration's stimulus package earlier this year. Then, in March, he announced his opposition to a high-profile proposal designed to make it easier for labor unions to organize new workplaces.
Least verified thing ever: someone on Twitter said that Toomey is polling far ahead of Specter among PA Repubs. It would explain why Specter is hitting him so hard.
Specter's only chance, perhaps. They rightly assume that the loathing of Wall Street could fade by Election Day, so they're striking while the iron is hot and trying to brand Toomey before he has a chance to do so himself.
Arlen will not go quietly....
Pilt
I applaud you stance against Card Check. But you support of the stimulus is beyond me. The winds of charge are coming… And your boat is going to be sailing off into the sunset.
Greg and Pilt -
There are competing polls right now (aren't there always...) on the Specter/Toomey primary. One had Toomey crushing Specter by 20-30% (probably an outlier), and another had Specter up by around 10%, I believe. At this point, pick your favorite poll, I guess. The conventional wisdom says, amongst Republicans, Toomey has the momentum, as Specter may have burnt his last bridge with conservative primary voters on his stimulus vote. However, Arlen may woo enough "Rendellicans" back into the fold just in time to cast primary ballots next spring.
I do find it funny that Specter is apparently intent on waging a populist campaign against Toomey, which will most likely be Toomey's playbook against Arlen. Specter's attempt to tie the financial crisis around Toomey's neck is a bit rich, considering Toomey has been out of Congress since 2004 (just as the subprime lending spree was kicking up) and Arlen has been around since 1980. Off the top of my head, I know Toomey voted multiple times to shut down offshore tax havens and to raise the minimum wage. Arlen (the consummate insider) attempting to portray Toomey (who grew up blue-collar and whose dad worked as a cable layer) as a Wall Street lapdog will be a bit pathetic, but predictable. Specter will take the Democrat playbook and run with it.
The only problem for Arlen? Conservatives won't buy it this time.
Greg and Pilt -
Any word on who the Dems are prepping for the race? I know most of the A-list candidates are hanging back at the moment, but considering Toomey's chances of knocking out Specter are even at a minimum, I'm assuming the Dems will run someone from the southeast who can put up of boatload of money, no? I don't see anyone from western PA emerging in the Senate race, as Wagner and Onorato seem fixated on the governor's contest. My bet would be Pat Murphy or Joe Sestak jumping into the Senate battle, with Allyson Schwartz or Josh Shapiro (although he may opt to remain in Harrisburg) as dark horses.
Although, you hear a lot of whispers about Rendell, but I just don't see that...
If I had to place a bet, it'd be on Allyson Schwartz.
My money is on Pat Murphy. Very good fundraiser, compelling profile, and extremely ambitious. He won't be content to stew in the House for long.