How Vulnerable is Tom Corbett?

Quinnipiac has a poll out today showing 53% of voters don’t think Tom Corbett deserves reelection. This is pretty much in line with PPP’s findings yesterday, so yes, in March 2013 he’s in horrible shape.

However, this blog will continue to take the bear view on Democrats’ chances of unseating Corbett mainly for meta reasons. I just don’t think it’s helpful for KP to be the junk food news blog, pushing readers feel-good stories and measuring the drapes before we win.

Privately though, my view is closer to phillydem’s:

Ordinarily I’d agree, but this is an usual set of convergent circumstances with Corbett. The biggest being the Sandusky case and the fallout to Penn State. The state is full of PSU students, alumni, employees, faculty and their families who are not happy with the way the whole situation was handled and Corbett’s role in it as both Atty Gen and BoT member.  Many of these folks are conservative, GOP voters but they’ve made up their minds long ago that they won’t be casting another vote for Corbett. So, I think the electorate is fairly well locked in at this point. Now, the GOP could hold the gov’s mansion, but I think only if Corbett faces a primary challenge and loses, although it’s hard to believe anyone could run further to the right of him.

I would also add that the low quality of Tom Corbett’s political skills leans against a comeback. A more charismatic or inventive politician might be able to find the way out of a hole this deep, but I really don’t think Corbett can pull it off. I think he believes he’s been judged unfairly, that his interpretation of the history of his administration will win out in the end, and so he’s more inclined to stay the course and feel sorry for himself, rather than retooling his agenda to emphasize more popular issues ahead of the campaign.