Dylan McGarry, a Bob Brady/Jonathan Saidel acolyte working on the Marjorie Margolies campaign, sent out a polling memo this morning announcing that the former Congresswoman has a huge lead in the race for the 13th District.
They polled respondents first, and then they read them positive profiles of the other candidates to try to model the impact of higher name recognition, and then polled them again. Here’s what they got:
Now, Margolies isn’t my favorite candidate in this race, but it’s futile to deny she’s got a big lead. The usual quibbling with the relatively high 4.8% margin of error and low sample size of 422 registered Democrats doesn’t get Daylin Leach anything close to a lead. So this is a gut-check poll for Daylin fans. We really do have a lot of work ahead of us.
Because when you cut through all the other fluff in this polling memo, the main thing Margolies has working for her is that she already represented this district, and has very high name recognition compared to the other candidates. Nobody knows about Daylin yet:
The bright spot here is that Margolies’s fundraising has been kind of weak, and Daylin’s fundraising has been totally bonkers. My prediction is that within a few months, the endorsements from people like Alan Grayson and other national progressive influentials will help Daylin’s campaign catch fire and allow him to tap into a national netroots donor base online, and keep putting up crazy fundraising numbers like the last haul. He is going to have the resources to compete in the Philadelphia media market.