#PA6 Poll: Jim Gerlach Losing to Democratic Challenger

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PPP is at it again: The Democratic pollster dropped some more numbers today that is more bad news for Republican incumbents in non-safe districts. Since they already proved that Pat Meehan (R, PA-7) and Mike Fitzpatrick (R, PA-8) are in danger of losing their seats, they’ve moved onto Jim Gerlach (R) in PA-6 — and almost surprisingly, his numbers are worse than both Meehan’s and Fitzpatrick’s:

  • Jim Gerlach Approval
    • Approve: 34%, Disapprove: 43%
  • Government Shutdown Plan to Stop Obamacare
    • Support: 31%, Oppose: 63% 
  • Debt Default Plan to Stop Obamacare
    • Support: 33%, Oppose: 58%
  • Would you vote for Jim Gerlach or a Democratic Opponent?
    • Jim Gerlach: 41%, Democratic Opponent: 46%

A ‘generic’ candidate normally does better against an incumbent than a named challenger — but that’s only under the assumption that Democrats run mediocre candidates for these seats. Additional proof that these numbers might be more real than you would initially think are the facts that:

  1. The Republican Party has its worst approval numbers in history;
  2. In GOP-held seats, 67% disapprove of Republicans in congress;
  3. 60% of Americans believe every member of congress should be removed; and
  4. Potentially most important, Democrats now lead the generic House ballot, 47-39.

PPP has come under fire recently for some of their choices of methodology — some of which are understandable, but their accuracy was never in question. They were one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2012 election.

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11 Responses to #PA6 Poll: Jim Gerlach Losing to Democratic Challenger

  1. And who will the DCCC find to run against Gerlach? They rarely back a good candidate for PA-06.

  2. Pingback: Poll finds vulnerabilities for Keith Rothfus in 12th district - Keystone Politics

  3. phillydem says:

    The 6th has always been sort of a fool’s errand for Dems. It should be competitive, but it never turns out that way. I think a lot of that is related to Gerlach’s rep as moderate from his
    days in the state legislature (same with Dent), but perhaps that memory is fading as Gerlach consistently votes to the right of his constituents.

    • The 6th has always been sort of a fool’s errand for Dems. It should be competitive, but it never turns out that way.

      Because the Dems ran Lois Murphy against him twice, and she was a craptastic candidate. Just awful. And they ran a cardboard cutout against him in 2008 who somehow got 48% of the vote even though the only ads the guy ran were billboard adverts at local SEPTA train stations. So basically the Democrats blew it for 3 straight cycles.

  4. Jesse Bacon says:

    Any rumors of who will run this time around?