Tom Corbett Says There Are 200,000 New Marcellus Shale Jobs. There are 17,414.

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Tim Stuhldreher is all over this nonsense:

As you can see, 200,000 is roughly the number of jobs Pennsylvania has gained back since the recession bottomed out in early 2010. In other words, if the Corbett administration’s assertion is correct, than to a first approximation, all of Pennsylvania’s post-recession jobs gains are Marcellus jobs. Moreover, we managed to add 200,000 jobs without reducing our unemployment rate below 7.7 percent (as of August, the most recent figure). Do either of those claims seem plausible to you?

Even if you want to assume an unreasonably large multiplier where one full additional job is supported by each Marcellus Shale job, you get 35,000 total new jobs, max. Not 200,000 jobs. That is 6 times too high.

This entry was posted in Miscellany.

5 Responses to Tom Corbett Says There Are 200,000 New Marcellus Shale Jobs. There are 17,414.

  1. GDub says:

    In a broader point, wouldn’t it be helpful to see greater skepticism across the board about “multiplier” effects for a range of industries/public investment projects when considering subsidies and incentives (i.e. the film industry?).

    We certainly don’t see restrained projections or criticism when politicians talk up the impact of arenas and stadiums. And I’m not sure Allentown has limited itself to a multiplier of one job for every job downtown when it comes to its NIZ (as a model for other cities).

  2. Jon Geeting says:

    Public spending multipliers are going to be higher during an economic downturn when there’s no crowding out of private investment, but under normal circumstances I agree. Better to be modest predicting multiplier effects, especially because if there aren’t as many jobs as you say, you’ll look like a fool!

  3. And how many of the jobs really in existence actually went to Pennsylvanians?

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