#PAGov: Two New Polls Confirm Tom Wolf Surge

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Backing up yesterday’s polling memo by Harper, F&M also finds that Tom Wolf has opened a wide lead:

In this poll, Wolf took 36%, Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz took 9%, State Treasurer Rob McCord took 3%, and the DEP Secretaries Katie McGinty and John Hanger tied at 1%.

Former Auditor General Jack Wagner, the latest entry into the race, was not polled.

Just under three months away from the election, 48% of voters surveyed said they were still undecided about their pick in the Democratic primary.

It looks like they didn’t push leaners though, and so we see Wolf’s support is still fairly soft with 48% still not committed to a candidate. Wolf is the favorite for liberals, moderates, and conservatives, and Allyson Schwartz is liberals’ second favorite with 12%.

Quinnipiac also released a poll this morning showing that Wolf has the widest lead over Tom Corbett, 52 to 33. Corbett doesn’t crack 38% against any of the Democrats, and respondents lopsidedly disapprove of him – 52 – 36%.

What we’re looking for from a general election nominee is the best balance of electability and ideological purity, but also the longest coattails that will help Democrats flip the state Senate. Voters need to also feel comfortable with giving this person a Democratic state legislature to work with, and right now Wolf is leading big with independents so he may have the best shot.

Still, the campaign isn’t even close to over, so take all these findings with a grain of salt.

(via Brittany Foster)

This entry was posted in Governor.

2 Responses to #PAGov: Two New Polls Confirm Tom Wolf Surge

  1. ppleb says:

    This is much better than your write-up of the first poll (the one with Wolf out in front with 40%). You put far too much stock in that first poll, and didn’t give enough weight to the fact that Wolf has been the only one on the air with a >$1M media buy for the last several weeks. I suspect most candidates predicted a significant surge for Wolf. Obviously Wolf’s numbers are encouraging for his camp, but they didn’t warrant such enthusiasm on your part. You also failed to give mention to something very surprising: McCord’s poor performance. He is a statewide office holder and he’s picking up low single digits – I’m sure his camp is surprised and scared by this, particularly given all of his endorsements to date. All the candidates numbers will start to converge once everyone gets on the air, and there aren’t many significant policy differences (save Wagner being pro-life), so this race will likely be won on strategy and messaging. Seems to me Schwartz and Wolf (and possibly McCord – but I’m not convinced he’s ready for prime time) have the most professional operations, but Schwartz has the campaign experience that Wolf, having never been elected to office, doesn’t. Will be very interesting but I give Schwartz the edge.

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