#PAGov: Third Poll Confirms Wolf Leading Corbett By At Least 20 Points

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Quinnipiac is the third pollster this week to confirm Tom Wolf’s huge lead. Tom Corbett’s approval rating (35%) is the lowest it’s ever been in a Q poll, and Wolf’s lead over Corbett is basically unchanged from February 2014. The latest poll shows Wolf beating Corbett by 53 to 33, and in February it was 52 to 33. Voters think the economy has been improving, but they aren’t giving Corbett any credit. There isn’t a single issue the Republican outpolls the Democratic nominee on.

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8 Responses to #PAGov: Third Poll Confirms Wolf Leading Corbett By At Least 20 Points

  1. Tsuyoshi says:

    In contrast to my skepticism about whether Wolf would win the primary, this looks pretty much like a done deal. 1) Wolf has already broken 50 percent, so there aren’t enough undecided voters left to change the result. 2) Voters presumably already know Corbett, so his positives cannot be improved. 3) If there were any effective negative attacks to be made against Wolf, they would have been made already, in the primary.

    The only thing Corbett has going for him is that Democratic turnout will surely suck this year. I don’t think that will be enough. It will take a real scandal (not just a gaffe) to turn this around for Corbett. Some kind of Willie Horton-level thing. Seems unlikely that anything like that will turn up at this point.

    The funny thing is, Corbett essentially delivered exactly what Republicans have been promising in every election for the past 35 years: massive tax cuts. There were two problems with that, though.

    The first problem is that the racist foundation of the appeal for tax cuts, the belief that there is a massive welfare system for minorities, is a fantasy. The system that does exist (TANF, SNAP, Section 8, Medicaid) is not especially massive, and it’s mandated by federal law, so it can’t really be cut much anyway.

    The second problem is that at the state level, you can’t make up for this by just borrowing money, like Reagan and Bush did at the federal level. Since states cannot print their own money, they are subject to speculative attack by bond traders if they try to do that. So to finance the massive tax cuts, Corbett had to actually cut spending that even his voters liked (i.e. K12 schools).

    Usually Republicans at the state/local level don’t actually follow through with their tax-cutting rhetoric, at least not at this scale. They never follow through with their spending-cutting rhetoric. This is why…

    • Don’t forget plenty of GOPers hate Corbett for what they perceive he did to JoePa. Why is that getting underplayed? I wish I knew. I think that’s is what accounts for the low numbers Corbett gets among GOPers. What I think is most likely to happen is that they vote in November and either vote for the GOP except Corbett or stay home completely. We’ll see I guess.

      • phillydem says:

        That’s true, but the biggest thing is the school funding cuts. I’m sure Corbett and his allies meant to punish just 2 of the 501 SDs (Pgh and Phila), but these cuts plus the charter school fiasco have hurt lots of small and medium sized districts which make up the preponderance of schools in the “T” where most of the GOP voters live. These folks have seen their property taxes go up all while having to dig deeper in their own pockets to fund extracurricular activies like band, field trips and so on.

        The other thing is that Wolf Cabinets is a big, and from all accounts pretty decent, employer in/around York, traditionally a strong Republican area. Those employees/friends/family aren’t too likely to be voting for Corbett.

        • That’s a good point. Will some GOPers “come home”? Sure. Not as many as “professional pundits” think though.

          • phillydem says:

            Personally, I think voters made up their minds a long time about Corbett. You can see it in the remarkable consistency of the polls and the low number of undecideds.

  2. Jeremy says:

    Jon,

    Please reply to my comment. What would constitute a “wave” election for the Democrats in 2014? It looks like the Dems will win the Gov’s race but how much more will they have to win to get “wave” election status? Tie in the State Senate? Pickup 4 or more in the State House?

  3. Jon Geeting says:

    I have no idea.

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