#PHL2015: Butkovitz Poll Obviously Fake

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This could be cleared up if Butkovitz would release the results, which he won’t, but the likely issue with this poll is either a “likely voter” screen that includes only certain Butko-selected zipcodes, or there was some unprofessional push-polling going on. A PoliticsPA commenter who claims s/he was polled says this is exactly what happened - the caller tried to prime respondents with positive statements about Butkovitz prior to asking which candidate the person was likely to support.

How do we know it’s not a credible poll? Look at how low in the mix Anthony Williams and T. Milton Street are. Williams isn’t a popular character with this blog’s readership, but he’s been in the state Senate since 1998, he’s run for Governor, he’s got a famous political name, and he’s constantly talked about as the Mayoral frontrunner in the press. There’s simply no way he’s only at 2%.

Same deal with Street’s (in)famous name.

The other tell is the two-way match-up between Butko and Williams, which has Butko with a 2-1 advantage. There’s just no way. Dude is in his second term as Controller. He’s run two campaigns in extremely low turnout elections. Almost nobody has experience actually pulling the lever for him, he’s rarely making front-page news, and holds a boring office where nobody is actually familiar with the job responsibilities. I would be very surprised if his name recognition with likely voters topped 20%.

Again, Butko can clear this up by releasing the methodology, the weighting of the different geographic areas in their likely voter screen, and the rest of the internals. But until he does that, there’s no good reason for anybody to take this junk poll seriously.

This entry was posted in Elections, Philadelphia 2015.

7 Responses to #PHL2015: Butkovitz Poll Obviously Fake

  1. thoughts says:

    21k votes for Williams in 2010 during the primary. 38k votes for Butko in 2013 primary. Williams. Will grant the geography, but Butko has run city-wide. Williams has not and he is in a seat with low turnout.

    Question to likely voters is simple as the definition is likely 3 of 4 mayoral primary elections (super voters). It will probably be a small turnout.

    Federal/State legislators have a poor track record running for Mayor. Consider that Nutter won with 106k votes and that Fattah and Brady (a well-known Congressman with a higher profile and geography than Williams) got 44k. Evans, who had a higher profile at the time than Williams has now and managed 22k.

    Take polls with a huge grain of salt especially if it is a candidate’s poll. Frankly, I don’t think it was a good poll to release b/c it shows him trailing a city councilman. I do, however, have no doubt that Williams would finish a long distance behind. Consider that Evans never polled higher than 10% in the 2007 primary and that Fattah/Brady never gained traction.

  2. WardTroll says:

    This poll is Butkus!!! He can’t win. He won’t win. Darrell Clark will not resign to run. Senator Anthony Williams will be the next Mayor of Philadelphia.

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  5. Jane Morhead says:

    Maybe we can ask him personally. AB lives at 1118 Unruh Avenue, Phila 19111. 53rd Ward.