How Tom Wolf’s 20 Point Lead on Tom Corbett Could Grow Even Larger

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In the first round of post-primary polling pitting Tom Wolf head-to-head against Governor Tom Corbett, Wolf has both a 20 point lead and is above 50 percent. If Wolf can maintain his momentum, he would be poised to beat Corbett at a margin close to that of Ed Rendell’s over Lynn Swann in 2006 (20.8%) or Tom Ridge’s over Ivan Itkin in 1998 (26.4%).

And it’s possible that Wolf’s win could be by even more epic proportions.

That’s because the biggest wildcard of the election—Attorney General Kathleen Kane’s review of Corbett slow-walking the Sandusky case—has yet to be played.

On Friday, a Corbett spokesman confirmed that the Governor had been interviewed earlier in the week in relation to the case, which means that Kane’s review is likely approaching its closing stages.

We’re not talking about a matter of weeks, though; it’s more likely to be a matter of months.

But timing is everything.

Speaking objectively, the results of the report are unlikely to be damning. Sandusky was successfully prosecuted on 45 of 48 counts and the verdict has been upheld on appeal. However, even if Kane’s report is just mildly critical of Corbett and produces only a few nuggets, Democrats can use it to their advantage and bury the already-underwater Governor.

If the report comes out in, say, September, Corbett will have time to refute a mildly-critical report and make Kane’s timing appear to be that of a politician, not a prosecutor.

But if the report comes out in, say, late October, and is mildly-critical, Democrats will have the advantage of a week of anti-Corbett headlines leading up to the election and the Corbett campaign won’t have very much of a chance to respond.

In short, the longer it takes Kathleen Kane to release this report, the better, unless it’s later than October, because then it’s politically irrelevant.

About Jake Sternberger

Jake Sternberger has been a contributing writer at Keystone Politics since 2011. Sternberger primarily covers campaigns and elections, drawing from his experience working on municipal, county, congressional, and statewide PA races doing field, communications, and campaign management. He is currently a law student. Email: jakes@keystonepolitics.com Twitter: @JakeSternberger
This entry was posted in Elections, Governor.

4 Responses to How Tom Wolf’s 20 Point Lead on Tom Corbett Could Grow Even Larger

  1. Peter says:

    As much as I want Wolf to win and Corbett to lose, I really hope it’s because of Corbett’s abysmal job. Here’s hoping all things connected to Jerry Sandusky fade from the public eye. I can’t imagine what it would be like to be one of his victims and see his name in the news all the time.

  2. Every one I know hate Corbett

  3. Pingback: #PAGov: Tom Corbett Hasn't Led Tom Wolf in a Poll Since January 2013 - Keystone Politics

  4. Pingback: #ByeByeTom: It’s Corbett’s Education Record, Not Sandusky, Stupid! | Raging Chicken Press