All partisan leanings aside, Senator Obama should have a clear advantage going into November. He’s running as a change candidate in a change cycle, the Republican brand is badly damaged, and his bruising primary with Senator Clinton has elevated his name recognition in all 50 states. Unfortunately for Sen. McCain these advantages are dwarfed by the huge financial advantage that Sen. Obama should have throughout the 2008 cycle. An analysis done by MSNBC’s First Read has speculated that Obama could bring in as much as $300 million. With Sen. McCain vowing to take public financing, his campaign will have to fight an uphill climb with a possible $100 million disadvantage.

So does this week’s news that Senator Obama will opt out of public financing put the McCain camp’s hope for the presidency out of reach? Not completely, but as former Bush strategist Matthew Dodd said Sunday on ABC’s This Week, “I believe Barack Obama has to lose this campaign. I don’t believe John McCain can win it.” Now, Sen. McCain has always run well as the underdog, especially when his campaign was in shambles in 2007 before a victory in New Hampshire revived it, but is this disadvantage coupled with the inherent difficulties in the 2008 cycle for Republicans too much to overcome? It appears that might be the case. Recent polling by Newsweek shows Senator Obama opening up a fifteen point lead on Sen. McCain nationally. A poll released by Quinnipiac last week showed Obama leading McCain in crucial battleground states like Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Furthermore, polling shown on This Week revealed that Obama can be competitive in Georgia. And Senator Obama’s recent advertising buys show he plans to force the McCain campaign to spend money in usually “red” states. Also a poll reported last week on Politicalwire.com showed that Virginia also appears to be within Obama’s reach. And for a more local view, we can see the practical effect of Obama’s money advantage in Scranton on Monday where his campaign will open local headquarters- a place that many Keystone readers have noted that McCain could do well in.
In American politics nothing is ever certain, but if the McCain campaign hopes to avoid celebrations after an Obama win from liberals like me, then it better shake this campaign up now-before it’s too late.