Pennsylvania has been a battleground in every election since at least 1988, and 2008 appears no different. Winning Pennsylvania is important for both parties and arguably more important for Sen. John McCain than Sen. Obama- so how will it be won by either candidate?
Obama starts with the early advantage for a few reasons- 1) Obama already has an extensive operation in place in Pennsylvania because of his intense primary campaign with Sen. Clinton. 2) McCain faced no actual Republican opposition in the Pennsylvania primary, yet a troubling portion of the Republican vote went to other candidates; which is a symbol that McCain has not yet solidified his base. 3) PA has been an increasingly blue state in both national and statewide elections. In 2006, Sen. Bob Casey and Gov. Ed Rendell won decisive victories, and Democratic registration has surged in PA with the competitive primary between Clinton and Obama. Additionally, and perhaps most significantly, the once Republican stronghold in the Philadelphia suburbs has turned blue.
So what should the Obama plan look like? The Obama plan will begin in Philadelphia and its suburbs where Obama appears to have a demographic advantage. The goal has to be to bring out as many Philly folks as possible, who are surely to favor the Sen. from Illinois. Next, the Obama campaign must look westward to Pittsburgh, where Obama should run up big margins in its urban population. The other Obama goal has to focus on bringing back Sen. Clinton’s supporters who are wary of him for many reasons, as these voters could tip the balance in PA. Lastly, the campaign must focus on the throngs of college students in PA and get them out. The Obama campaign has proven to be great at bringing new voters to the polls and doing so in PA will be crucial, especially if older voters, who dominate Pennsylvania politics, remain wary of him.

So what about the McCain campaign? Although he has disadvantages at the outset, he can still be very competitive in this state. McCain should do well with older Pennsylvanians and has the potential to pick off some disaffected Clinton supporters. McCain should focus his campaign on what is known as Pennsylvania’s “T,” the place where Democrats go to die. McCain has to bring some enthusiasm to these culturally conservative voters and get them out in droves. McCain should also focus on the suburbs of Pittsburgh and the Erie area where many “Blue Dog” Democrats reside. And in order to win PA McCain has to channel the old maverick and cut into Obama’s margins in suburban Philadelphia. Bringing back the old maverick and appealing to cultural conservatives in central PA may prove to be too difficult a tightrope to walk. McCain’s camp may have to make a strategic decision about whether they should focus on bringing out the conservative base or appealing to independents and disaffected Republican’s in Philly’s suburbs. Can the McCain campaign do both? Well, maybe. The way to do this is by campaigning in PA as John McCain, the maverick, and running a very negative campaign against Obama; making him such an unacceptable choice that conservatives come out in droves to vote against him.

Both campaigns have serious challenges and opportunities in PA, and that’s what makes the state so crucial in November.