Wrong, the 17th was redrawn for George Gekas to hold easily. It was and remains a solid majority Republican district.

If ever there was someone with a bullseye on his back, it is Carney. He is a Democrat representing a very Republican district. The election wasn’t about him, it was about how much of a scumbag his opponent was.

Will Carney vote with the Republicans enough for the voters to reelect him against a less scandal-ridden Republican in 2008?

Chris Carney was born and raised in that district and demonstrated he has the same values as his constituents. As long as he remains true to himself, he will be able to hold that district for as long as he likes, just like Tim Holden in the 17th.

Incidentally, the Philly Inquirer did not have its own “welcome aboard” pieces for incoming Congressmen Patrick Murphy and Joe Sestak. Both the national political reporter and the reporter who covered the 8th District race were among those laid off on Tuesday.

Carney, much like the other three Dem freshmen from the Commonwealth, have 22 months to prove they aren’t merely Iraq-driven fads. For Mr. Carney, representing the most ideologically conservative district, this will be quite a challenge. Arguably, if the GOP had dumped The Choker back in the primary, Carney probably wouldn’t have been sworn in today. Sherwood, like most other scandal-plagued Republicans, couldn’t survive last November. I’m sure the state GOP has a fairly solid bench in the 10th Congressional district and it’ll be interesting to see who they put up. As for Carney’s new Dem collegues, Sestak is probably the safest, by virtue of his resume and the fact that much of the southeastern GOP establishment is in total disarray. In the 8th, Pat Murphy may find himself locked in a rematch with Mike Fitzpatrick, which would result in another photo finish. In the west, Altmire’s stature has seemingly grown without working a day under the Capitol dome. Last September, nobody seemed to know who he was. Ideologically, he’s a decent fit for the district (blending populism with social conservativism) and he already has a signature issue (health care). Perhaps Ms. Hart’s run was a mere flirtation and the voters lost interest. However, if the GOP would want to lure the affections of the 4th back, either state Rep. Mike Turzai (who ran against Klink in ’98) or well-respected state Sen. Jane Orie would give Altmire a healthy scare.

A Butler-based candidate like Orie or Turzai is not going to win in the 4th. Both are far too conservative for this district as well.

The 8th will probably continue to be close, but 2008 is also a presidential year where more Dem voters will come out than in
2006. The GOP is pretty close to maxed in turning out its based. Further, Pete Kostmayer, a popular and multi-term rep, ran against Greenwood again after Greenwood beat him and lost. I don’t see Fitzpatrick having another go. Rumor is Harry Fawkes will try and talk DiGiligormo(sp?), the former mayor of Bensalem and current state rep, into going against Murphy. Personally, I since lower Bucks is held in low regard by the rest of Bucks countians, Murphy would probably win.

Sestak will be fine in the 7th.

Dems are going to target the 18th, 3rd and 15th in 2008 as all those districts have Dem registration edge.

Some follow-up here. A “Butler-based” candidate like Orie (who is actually from McCandless/Wexford, if I’m not mistaken) can’t win, but the “Cranberry-based” Hart was able to find electoral success in the 4th? If anything, Orie may be a more attractive candidate than Hart, as she has earned wide respect in her legislative career and is seen as somewhat less of a bombthrower than Melissa (although, in truth, Hart wasn’t nearly as partisan as her reputation held). The 8th is a swing district, but it remains to be seen just who wins the turnout battle in two years, as both sides tend to show up for presidentials. To me, Sestak is the safest, but it all depends on who the DelCo GOP finds to take him on. They may yet pull an electable rabbit from their well-worn hat. As for the 18th, 3rd, and 15th districts: Dems have outside shots in the 18th and 15th. Despite his Habay-like troubles, Murphy looks good, as of now, although a formidable candidate like Barbara Hafer may change that. English isn’t going anywhere in the 3rd (although the same was said of Hart in the 4th). In the 15th, Dent was re-elected comfortably in a year where Dems carried the Lehigh Valley handily. Granted, his opponent got a late start, but that seat may be a bit tougher to flip than Dems think.

Dent is going to draw top tier challenges in 08. He’s never had that before. He didn’t win very comfortably when you consider the financial advantage he had… and that his opponent was doomed from day one for so many reasons. Dent’s scared. You should see him running around the valley right now. He has to account for a voting record that has become much more conservative than it was when he was in the state house representing liberal parts of Allentown.

Murphy (from the 18th) is in trouble. The headlines of using district office staff for political purposes will translate into a ton of nice advertisements. And it won’t be a hafer that knocks him off. It will be an outside the box candidate or a state senator who takes the dive and realizes that now is the time to go at the guy.

The Delco GOP doesn’t have too much depth right now. They lost a few incumbents in the state house level and their party organization is reeling after loosing the 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006 top ticket races.

Wexford and Cranberry are one in the same. And you know as well as I do that until this cycle, Dems couldn’t get their act together and field a competent candidate against her. Even her
renowed constituent services couldn’t save Hart against a formidable challenger. In addition, she dissed Beaver county by clsoing her offices there. The point is Orie represents few if any residents in either Beaver or Lawrence county which is the heart of the 4th. Turzai got crushed when he ran against Veon for state rep in the 14th which is why he had to run up to Butler to be elected.

When Holden was origianlly elected his district was not solidly Republican. Carney’s district is.

In 2002 Gekas was an overwhelming favorite to beat Holden but still managed to lose the seat.

Holden was originally elected in 1992 to represent the 6th district. That district was not as Republican as the 17th, which he currently represents.

After redistricting Holden was thrown into the same GOP leaning district as Gekas. But many of those Republican voters were constituents of Holden for ten years from the 17th, and had already taken a liking to him. Carney will not have such an advantage.

over 2/3 of the 17th was in Gekas’ district and the 1/3 from Holden’s district that was tucked into the 17th was a majority GOP. When 1/3 of the district is familiar with you and many have reason not to like you (based on party) that’s not an advantage. The 17th is hardly a GOP leaning district… it’s the ultimate in GOP districts (which helped meet the goal of knocking out the Democratic Congressman). Go look at Bush’s numbers there from 2000 and 2004. Close to 60% and the state senate/house numbers are very similar. The 17th performs for REpublicans very similarly to Carney’s new seat.

I think Carney, if he plays his cards right, could have an easier go of it than Holden did in 2002 b/c 100% of the district will know about him. It won’t be easy, but he shouldn’t be considered a one term wonder.