Without the voters in the SE, the GOP won’t win statewide elections.

Pennsylvania has conducted some big elections lately: presidential races, gubernatorial races, and congressional races. So, it might surprise some to learn that the next big electoral contest in Pennsylvania is not a high-stakes federal or state race. It’s a struggle for control of a few courthouses in the Philadelphia suburbs. Historically, these are low-cost, low-interest affairs. Not this year!

The elections in Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery counties have huge implications for the political future of Pennsylvania. Why? Because of Pennsylvania’s tradition of strong local political parties. The party that controls county government often is the party that will be successful in state and federal elections. That matters this year because, for the first time in decades, the Philly suburbs are up for grabs.

Both demographic and ideological forces underlie the erosion of GOP support. Suburban voters, many whose parents or grandparents adopted the Republican Party when they fled Philadelphia, have become more willing to vote for Democrats. They are boosted by in-migration from new voters, of whom many are employed in the high-tech, health-care, and financial institutions that have less allegiance to the Republican Party. Suburban voters are markedly more moderate on the great social questions of the day, especially abortion, gay marriage, gun control, and federal funding of stem-cell research. While still fiscally conservative, suburban voters are restive in a party often dominated by social conservatives.