Personally I think PA has gone solidly blue and it would be a tough state for John McCain to win; Obama’s got to worry about losing PA, but he doesn’t have to work hard to win it.
Tomorrow in Western Pennsylvania, Sen. Barack Obama will kick off his campaign as the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate.On Saturday, Sen. John McCain – perhaps with his newly named running mate – will touch down in the state for the 16th time since becoming the Republican Party’s presumptive nominee.
And that is just the beginning. Both parties agree there will be a blizzard of presidential campaign stops in Pennsylvania between now and November. Once again, the state is a crucial election battleground; in June and July, for instance, more TV ad money was spent here than in any other state.
The consensus among political leaders and pundits is that the state will play a decisive role in determining who wins the White House – with Obama having more at stake. If the Illinois senator loses the state, with its 21 electoral votes, they say, he loses the election.
I second your analysis.
I second your analysis. This will not be your standard Pennsylvania election where the Democrats easily take Philly and Pittsburgh, while the T goes mostly Republican. The hotly contest Democratic primary has increase registrations over 4 million. This statistic alone suggests the Dems will take PA without too much trouble. Unfortunately, I am almost certain the Republicans will pull out all the stops… so expect to hear some gun talk, along with a little family values thrown in.
Agree as well
I don’t think Obama will need to or will spend much time in SE/Philly. He’ll win that area of the state easily. I won’t be surprised if Obama tops Gore and Kerry’s huge margins coming out of the city. Bob Casey will be Obama’s best surrogate in western PA and the NE.
What surprised me, though, was when I looked at the numbers breakdowns in the latest Keystone and Q polls, that Obama was tied with McCain in central PA. If that holds, McCain is really toast here.
The Ayers ad has been running here for a week or so here in wPA, but Obama is up with a response ad that puts numbers on the things McCain supports and ends with McCain and Bush standing side-by-side with their arms raised. Bush is so wildly unpopular here, all Obama has to do is remind voters, McCain will be more of the same. Obama also has the ad about McCain’s houses that ends with the question: “how the economy working for you?”. It’s pretty effective, IMHO.
pd
PA definitely blue
Even in the “T” areas of PA – it’s all about economic issues. Repubs are talking about how things were better economically before bush. I have heard even older voters state that they may hesitate to vote for Obama – but they will just Not Vote in the presidential race – instead of voting for “more of the same(Mccain)” from the last 7 years.
McSame is catching on in PA. Now we can only hope that translates to Ohio voters too.
Does anyone have the poll
Does anyone have the poll data from Ohio? Our states are similarly situated, is the same phenomenon occuring in the Buckeye state?
Q poll
Here’s a link to the latest Quinippiac Poll
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11358.xml
I believe they’re doing Pa, Oh and Fl simultaneously.
pd
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