Some Analysts Predicting an Obama Upset in PA

In the past week there’s been a big shift in attitude across Pennsylvania. More people than ever, confirmed by both anecdotal evidence and recent polls, are turning toward Obama. So he might just pull this thing off on Tuesday…

Five weeks ago, polls suggested that Clinton had a double-digit lead over Obama in Pennsylvania ranging from 16 to 20 points.

More recent polls suggest he is closing the gap, with some polls having her as few as 4 percentage points ahead.

My political instincts are based not on polls (they are often misleading), but on anecdotal evidence gained from observing the political activity around me and talking to the people involved in it.


Yippee!

Yippee!!!

I don't think so

I don’t think HRC will win by 20, but her numbers have been holding around 50% in all the recent polls. SE Pa, and probably Philly, will make or break Obama. Philadelphia County doesn’t usually turn out in big numbers for a primary (Rendell’s primary runs are the exception) and that is where his strength is. I know there was an earlier post about “street money” and if he decides to stick to his guns and not give any, that could hurt turnout of his voters. The warlords in Iraq and Afghanistan have nothing on the ward leaders in Philadelphia.

We will also see if younger voters go against their pattern and also turn out in large numbers for Obama.

pd

Obama Upset?

Reluctantly, I agree with pd, albeit, for different reasons.
The relatively large number of “undecideds” out there worries me. The percentage is much lower than in earlier polls but yet enough to seriously hurt Obama if they go for Clinton. Hate to say it but I still fear a Pennsylvania primary with a large vote coming in from Alabama.
While one can only hope it’s not true, Bill Clinton’s own visits to literally dozens of small Pennsylvania towns whose inhabitants never dreamed of seeing a former president walk their streets, may be a strategy driven less by media exposure and more by demographics.
Matt Thomas

Campaign stops

Both candidates are campaigning where their votes are – nothing wrong with trying to turn out your supporters.

Also, take a look at the total numbers from the M-D poll. They’ve got 45% of the voters coming from Philly Metro. Now I know that 2/3rds of all Pennsylvanias live Harrisburg and points east, but Philly Metro only contains about a third (4M of 12M) of alI Pennsylvanians. 45% is too high for this area, meaning Obama’s strength was likely overstated.

pd

Hillary = Alabama?

I’m not sure I like the comparison that a vote for Hillary must be coming from Alabama. So what? Their votes count, too. Plus, not every cosmopolitan young person is going to vote for Obama. Seems silly to expect them to.

I know the people of PA

I know the people of PA want a strong, tough, fighting for the people and that person is
HILLARY CLINTON. She is like the “energizer bunny”—she gets up and KEEPS on fighting. And that will
be what she will do for Pennsylvanians and ALL Americans when she puts in place her plans to FIX the Economy FIX the Healthcare System FIX unemployment & Create JOBS End the Iraq war Bring manufacturing jobs back to the US End reckless Republican spending

I look forward to a NEW CLINTON PRESIDENCY— HILLARY CLINTON in 2008

Why Clinton did not do for PA.What she did for New York State?,

I am curious,if Clinton cared so much about the state where her father was raised and worked,WHY did she forsake that state for New York state?WHY hasn’t the Gov.Rendel questioned her reasons for NOT helping PA.out untill now ?People in PA.aren’t that stupid are they?Where has Clinton been through the hard times PA.has had ,loss of jobs,homes lost,high crime rates ,come on folks don’t be used by ANOTHER Clinton or Bush puppet.

The Clintons have been at

The Clintons have been at war since they arrived on the national stage.They are good at it, but it never ends, and they have come to actually enjoy it. Washington is also in a trench war where closely matched party soldiers in trenches hold the line, but make no progress. Even worse, they end up taking money and comfort from people who simplyare not concerned about the workers and middle class. My grandfather who was born in 1898 told me if the rich people ever get rid of the middle class by being greedy, we are in for a civil war. I remember thinking he a perhaps a little kooky in
his old age. Our government is for sale, and we are getting to
pay with our jobs and towns to subsidize the deals.

It's for sale anyway

I hate to say it, but Obama is no better. His top six contributing employers are Wall Street firms. Is that a coincidence? Do you think he’ll do a better job at bucking his contributors than other politicians? There’s no evidence that he’s done that in the past…

trouble

You know something is up when Bill and Hillary are stumping in NE PA three days before the primary. This area is supposed to be locked up for them and I strongly suspect its not. I don’t see Obama signs and more importantly I don’t see Hillary signs either. Most everyone I hear talk says they like Obama (I drive bus) but I think they are afraid to show it publicly because of the percieved negativity or backlash.

Many of us are already

Many of us are already having a hard time, and taxes will only go up with either Obama or Hillary. Not just income tax, but excise tax, gas tax, and property tax.
One reason so many mortgages are in foreclosure is that home owners have been getting huge tax increases on top of their mortgage payments.
Both candidates are too afraid of the big unions, like the teachers, to stand up for the rest of us. They go on, getting raise after raise, while we get poorer and poorer.
Democrats are in the tank for the big unions that are bankrupting many of us.

taxes

You say both candidates are afraid of the unions who give out raise after raise and no one is there for the little guy. I assume you are republican. Tell me what have the republicans done for you lately except take what little rights you had and tossed them and made it very convenient for your employer to keep you in poverty or threaten to leave if you squacked. It never fails to amaze me why the rural citizens in PA who get nothing from government continue to vote republican and against their better interest.

No Taxes Equals No Services, Bozo

I am so tired of people raising the red flag of higher taxes every time it looks like a Democrat has a chance of getting into high public office. Last time I checked, Bush’s tax cuts helped less than 1 percent of the U.S. population, and those people didn’t need help anyway. Trickle down economics is a sham.
Without taxes, please explain to me how the police will get paid, your garbage picked up, your roads paved, etc.
The problem with so many Americans is that they want something for nothing.

Clinton won't deliver on promises

A few days ago, Inquirer staff writer Thomas Fitzgerald wrote this about the contest: “At its core the debate boiled down to this familiar argument: Obama saying that politics itself was broken, its games not worth playing, and Clinton saying that skill at the game was crucial.” – http://www.philly.com/philly/hp/news_update/200804…

Indeed! Clinton is bent on continuing to play the game as is. Nothing will change. And just as she blamed the fact that she did not deliver on the 50K jobs that she promised NY on Gore having lost the White House, so she will invoke all sorts of reasons for not being able to deliver her health care plans.

Even more troubling, remember that she is very much against strong ethics law to keep lobbyists and special interests in check. As reported recently in The Guardian: “Clinton also resisted two attempts, both sponsored by Obama, to establish an ‘office of public integrity’ in the Senate. The integrity office, a cause célèbre for government watchdogs, would independently probe ethics complaints against senators. Current law empowers members of Congress to oversee ethics compliance, but few follow through when asked to police the behaviour of their colleagues.

The Obama camp has brought up Clinton’s past praise for the ethics bill in an attempt to paint her current criticism as politically motivated, but no mention has been made of her opposition to neutral ethics investigations.

Meanwhile, McCain joined Obama as a sponsor of both plans for the integrity office. If Clinton’s Democratic opponent does not seize on her vote against the reform, her possible Republican opponent may well decide to use it against her.” – http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jan/22/hillar…

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