Not sure I follow here? Are you saying Castor won all 10 SE counties in 2004 or that he won the rest? Neither is accurate. Castor lost Berks, Lehigh and certainly lost his fair share statewide. Yes, he’s popular around the SE, but he, more than Rendell, loses his support the further away you go. Castor did not win Allegheny, Beaver, Berks, Carbon, Greene, Lackawana, Lawrence, Lehigh, Luzerne, Schuylkil and Washington counties, all of which Rendell won and only two of which could be considered SE. The point is that Castor is a regional candidate more so than Rendell. You might speculate that in a head to head, Castor would pull in votes in some of those counties, but that’s speculation without previous evidence to suggest that in those counties I listed above that Castor has performed well electorally.

Besides, in a head to head in SE PA, I think Rendell’s margins in Philly remain the same and only moderately change in Chesco, Bucks, Delco. In Montco they proably split but without evidence to say Castor could peal away support in the other counties he failed to win in 2004, I don’t see how the rest of the state totals change. Since Rendell won by more than 300,000 votes statewide, I could see 180,000 votes shifting in the SE (at most… probably more like 85k to 100k). I don’t think Castor’s presense changes another 120,000 votes statewide.

In the ’04 primary, Castor won Philly, bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, Monroe, Northampton. He split almost 50-50 in Lehigh and Berks. All with the party firmly behind Corbett. Yes, Castor is a regional candidate, btu against Rendell, all the GOP needs is a regional candidate, so long as that region is the SE. ANY Republican will do well against Rendell outside the SE. INSIDE the SE is what is critical.

Point taken.

I could take your point but the fact that castor did not run against Rendell (a DA isn’t poorly positioned for such a run) tells me he doesn’t think that is so much the case.

I think Castor didn’t run for two reasons: 1)the state GOP has shunned him to its own detriment, and 2)even if Castor could have secured the nomination, he didn’t think Rendell could be beaten by anyone. That second point might or might not be true, but for the GOP to have had a realistic chance, I say Castor was the best option and should have been more fully explored.

Calling Bruce Castor…calling Bruce Castor. This election HAS ALWAYS BEEN about the SE. Anyone with half a brain knew that that day after Rendell was elected the first time. If the GOP was to have any chance of winning this time, it had to attack Rendell in the SE. Castor was trying to position himself for just this reason. Had the GOP nominated him for AG, it now would have a viable candidate for governor. Castor supporters understood this, but so did his detractors led by the Prince of Darkness himself, Bob Asher. Does anyone think Asher wants ANY Republican to be more powerful than he is? That goes doubly for a Republican from his own county. When people finally figured out that Castor was truly the only real hope this time and went to talk to him, he simply said no. The leadership of the GOP is out of touch with the voters and in cozy with the Dems. Until Asher is out, the party will continue to go down the chute.

Sounds good to me. Is there any way I can donate money to Asher?

you are a devious person! As far as Castor running this year, even if he was elected AG, after spending two years in he still wouldn’t have been ready for the prime time. Rendell would have used his lack of statewide experience and his lack of a completed statewide term the entire race. He would have done better than Swann, but he wouldn’t have won against Rendell. There is a reason he ducked on these races. He’s an intelligent politician who knows that now is not his time. That’s why he didn’t run against Schwartz. He knows that he would get smashed and it’s very VERY difficult to come back after two straight high profile losses.

As far as the Candyman, he is a networking master. You must break his non-ideological network in order to unseat him. There are a lot of business folks who look to Asher for their cues. They don’t care about ideology. they care about making sure their political investments (time and money) go to the winning party.

I think you’re right that Castor passed this time because he didn’t think anyone could beat Rendell. Maybe he is right about that. I agree with the previous post, however, that Castor is the one guy who could have given Rendell a run for his money simply because he, frankly, is the second most popular political figure in the SE after Rendell. I doubt that running from AG or DA would have made much difference for him. As far as the Schwartz seat goes, you’re right that Castor wouldn’t have won, but he passed on it for an even more basic reason: he doesn’t want to be a congressman. That much is evident.

Apparently the state Rs felt that an east-west strategy was better. They decided to try and maximize and energize the western base with Swann, but Swann, despite his football prowess, has turned out to be a political dud.

IMO, there were two bad choices, the one the state Rs made and running someone from the SE. Rendell is still hugely popular in the east generally and the 5-county SE in particular. Castor might have taken some votes, but he’s unknown outside of MontCo and I doubt he’d have been able to raise a lot of money to make himself known outside the SE (see Hoeffel vs Specter). With two candidates for gov from the SE, then the western end of the state would be up for grabs. Rendell, with the power of money and incumbency would have grabbed it. The ‘pubs were foolish not to have nominated Scranton, who might have given Rendell a better run.

To me, Swann’s real challenge isn’t in the southeast. Rendell will take the five-county monolith again, perhaps with larger margins. To win, Swann must consolidate and build his base in the southwest, then work on what I call the southeast “margins”, namely Berks and Lehigh (even Lancaster and York, too), where Rendell did fairly well four years ago. If Swann is able to pick up votes in the southwest and recapture marginal southeast counties from Rendell, he just might offset the guv’s advantages around Philadelphia. As far as the Philly ‘burbs go, they’re probably a lost cause for Swann, but for the sake of survival, he must tour those areas and at least make some sort of noble effort. If he is able to win even a nominal amount of converts, he could pull an upset (if he holds the southwest and southeast “margins”, as mentioned earlier). The bottom line is that Swann can do this, but considering Rendell’s power base in Philly and bursting warchest, it’ll be a huge challenge, or “Hail Mary”, if you will.

From a voter-rich standpoint, you’re right – 2/3rds of the state’s population is east of Harrisburg. Lancaster and York are the largest solidly Republican counties in the state, so they’d be a definate part of the faithful GOP base.

As for the SW, the voters there are more savvy than I think they usually get credit for. Because of his Steeler ties, they gave Swann a look, but when he had those early fumbles and presented no plan or thoughtful answers to policy questions, it was obvious to that Swann just isn’t qualified to be governor.

With the Swann selection, the state GOP seemed to be operating under the old premiss that westerners tend
to be overrepresented during elections because they vote in a higher percentage than easterners, but that
no longer applies. The power base has shifted east and
the Rs will have to figure out a strategy for it.

pd

Actually Castor is well know in the 10 counties making up the greater SE. He won them all in the ’04 AG primary against the endorsed candidate. Votes in those counties are critical in this election. Rendell is HATED outside the SE, so whomever runs will do well there. It is in the SE the Rendell wins this election.